I just got back from a large real estate conference in Las Vegas hosted by Zillow, with thousands of agents from around the country. One sentence kept coming up from their clients and mine: “We’re waiting for rates.” I get it. 7.40% isn’t fun. But I would be doing you a disservice if I let you wait without showing you the numbers, so I ran them.
The short answer: waiting isn’t free. On a $390,000 home, a 3% price rise over a year adds about $11,700 to the price, and the rent you pay while you wait builds no equity. Rates have to fall below roughly 7.1% before waiting saves even a dollar a month on the payment.
The Short Version
Rates are 7.40% (Freddie Mac, Oct. 15, 2026), up from 6.27% a year ago. Prices are still rising: the Hampton Roads median is up 2.74% from last September (REIN), though growth is slowing. Buyers have leverage: the most homes on the market in over six years and nearly half of U.S. sales with seller concessions. The math: if rates fall, buying now and refinancing later lands about even on the payment with a smaller loan. A 2/1 buydown can cut the year-one payment by about $485 a month in the example below.
The Numbers Right Now: Rates Are Up, People Are Still Buying and Selling
Here is what is happening in Hampton Roads, from REIN’s September 2026 report compared with September 2025:
| Hampton Roads measure | Change vs. last September | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | +2.74% | $375,000 |
| Homes for sale (active listings) | +16.17% | 6,357 active listings |
| Homes closed | +1.18% | 2,142 settled sales |
| Contracts signed (pending sales) | −6.95% | Fewer buyers competing for each home |
Source: REIN, September 2026 Hampton Roads report. Rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Oct. 15, 2026. Market data and rates change frequently and vary by lender and submarket. Not a quote or guarantee.
REIN’s board president described the number of homes on the market as “at its highest level in over six years.” More choices for you, sellers who know they have to compete, and prices that are still rising, just more slowly than earlier this year.
The Bigger Picture: 7% Feels High, but History Says It Is Closer to Normal
Since Freddie Mac started tracking in 1971, the average 30-year fixed rate has been about 7.7%. The 2–3% rates everyone remembers took a global pandemic and emergency policy to create, and they lasted about two years. That was the exception, not the rule.
| Era | Average 30-year fixed rate |
|---|---|
| 1970s | 8.9% |
| 1980s | 12.7% |
| 1990s | 8.1% |
| 2000s | 6.3% |
| 2010s | 4.1% |
| 2020–21 (pandemic era) | 3.0% |
| 2022–24 | 6.3% |
| Today (Oct. 15, 2026) | 7.4% |
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED (St. Louis Fed). Era figures are averages of annual averages, rounded. Long-run average since 1971: about 7.7%. Record high 18.63% (Oct. 1981); record low 2.65% (Jan. 2021).
Today’s 7.40% is a little below the 55-year average. It feels high because the last 15 years were unusually low. Almost nobody is truly waiting for 3%. Most people are waiting for 6%, and that could happen, but the latest forecasts I have seen do not have it arriving soon.
The Crowd Problem: What Happens When Thousands Wait for the Same Thing?
If thousands of people are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the same trigger, the day it happens they may all move at once. First, rates dip, even a little. Second, everyone who has been waiting shows up the same week. Third, that can mean more offers per home, less room to negotiate and higher prices. Right now you are not competing with that crowd. That is the window.
One set of forecasts I heard at the conference:
- U.S. home values up about 2.1% next year, with Hampton Roads closer to 4.5%.
- Mortgage rates staying between 6.5% and 7% through 2027 and possibly 2028.
Forecasts are opinions, not promises, and they vary between forecasters. Nobody has a crystal ball.
The Math: What Waiting a Year Really Costs
Say you are buying a $390,000 home with 5% down at today’s 7.40%. Principal and interest is about $2,565 a month. Now say you wait a year and prices rise 3%, close to the current pace of 2.74%. Same house, $11,700 more. Here is the monthly payment depending on where rates land:
| If you… | Rate | Payment (P&I) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy today | 7.40% | $2,565 | start |
| Wait: no change | 7.40% | $2,642 | +$77 |
| Wait: small dip | 7.00% | $2,539 | −$26 |
| Wait: big dip | 6.50% | $2,412 | −$153 |
| Wait: huge dip | 6.00% | $2,288 | −$277 |
Rates have to fall past about 7.1% before waiting saves you a single dollar a month. A bigger drop saves real money, no argument there. But look at what you give up to get it.
If rates fall to 6.0% next year: buying now and refinancing later means about $2,228 a month on a loan balance of about $367,000. Waiting and then buying means about $2,288 a month on a loan of about $381,600. That is roughly even on the monthly payment (before refinance costs), but you start with a loan about $14,600 smaller and a year of equity. And if rates never fall, you still own the house at today’s price instead of paying more for it later.
You can refinance your rate. You can’t refinance your purchase price. Or your negotiation.
Your Leverage: Buyers Haven’t Had This in Years
Redfin reports that in August, sellers gave concessions in 44.7% of U.S. home sales, up from 42.6% a year ago and the highest August share since at least 2020 (Redfin, August 2026). Locally, that is showing up in my own deals. In the last couple of months, my clients have negotiated repairs after the inspection instead of paying out of pocket, gotten closing cost assistance from the seller, and secured a rate buydown on one purchase so the buyer started with a lower payment.
In my experience, few sellers would have said yes to any of that back when they had ten offers on the table. Some will say yes now. If rates drop and the crowd returns, that room to negotiate is likely to shrink.
What Is a 2/1 Buydown?
You will hear this term a lot, because more buyers and sellers are using it now that rates are higher. A 2/1 buydown temporarily lowers your interest rate for the first two years of the loan: 2 points lower in year one, 1 point lower in year two, then your regular rate for the rest. Someone else, usually the seller, pays for it with a credit at closing. Example: $390,000 home, 5% down, 30-year fixed at a 7.40% note rate.
| When | Rate | Payment (P&I) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5.40% | $2,080 | −$485 |
| Year 2 | 6.40% | $2,318 | −$248 |
| Years 3–30 | 7.40% | $2,565 | regular |
On this example that is about $8,800 in lower payments over the first two years. It is not free money. A seller credit pays for it, and some sellers build that cost into their price. But in a market where nearly half of sales include concessions, it is a reasonable thing to ask for.
- You qualify at the full rate (7.40% in this example), not the lowered rate.
- The credit pays the difference to your lender, usually held in escrow.
- If rates drop, you can usually refinance later.
- Limits on seller credits vary by loan type, so plan it from the start.
Buydown availability and terms depend on the lender, loan program and seller. I am a real estate agent, not a lender. Not a loan offer.
Down Payment and Closing Cost Help for Qualified Buyers
Rate is not the only thing standing between people and a front door. The cash to close is the other one, and there is more help available than most people realize: down payment and closing cost assistance programs, including options through Virginia Housing and local programs; VA loans with no down payment for eligible veterans and service members (seller credits and buydowns work a little differently on a VA loan, so ask how they apply to you); and seller concessions and rate buydowns negotiated into your offer. Eligibility depends on income, location, loan type and credit. See the down payment assistance guide for details.
What Rent Buys You vs. What a Payment Buys You
Rent can look cheaper month to month. But rent is gone the day you pay it, and it goes up at every renewal. A fixed-rate payment stays put and builds something. Same $390,000 home, 5% down, 7.40%, five years in:
| After 5 years | Amount |
|---|---|
| Principal you have paid off, even if prices never move | $20,292 |
| Your equity if prices rise 3% a year (starting from $19,500 down) | about $101,900 |
| Equity built by 5 years of rent | $0 |
Illustration only. Owning also costs interest, taxes, insurance, mortgage insurance and repairs. Assumes 3% annual appreciation, which is not guaranteed. Does not include selling costs.
Start Now and You Could Be Settled In Before the Holidays
Most purchases take about 30 to 45 days from contract to closing (VA and FHA loans can run longer). Counting backward from the holidays:
| When | What it can mean |
|---|---|
| This week | Get pre-approved, find out which programs you qualify for and start looking. |
| By about Nov. 1 | Under contract can mean closing in early December. |
| By about Nov. 20 | Under contract can mean closing before Christmas, if your loan timeline allows. |
| Jan. 1 | New year, your own front door. |
A lot of buyers and sellers pause for the holidays. In my experience that means less competition and more room to negotiate, with more choices in front of you than in the spring rush. Timelines vary by loan type and lender, so there are no promises, but the calendar is on your side if you start now.
Thinking of Selling? Same Math, Other Side of the Table
If you own a home you are reading the same headlines. With more homes for sale than at any point in six years, pricing and preparation matter more than ever. Buyers are negotiating, so the sellers who do best are the ones who are ready. In my experience fewer people list between Thanksgiving and New Year, and the buyers still out there are serious. The list-now-or-wait breakdown and the fall seller prep guide cover the timing and prep side.
What Buyers and Sellers Want Right Now
A few numbers Zillow shared at the conference in Las Vegas stuck with me, as I recorded them there: 70% of first-time buyers use AI in their search, 61% of all buyers use AI, and 64% of sellers use AI. Meanwhile 80% look for trust in an agent, and 78% want responsiveness, communication and local knowledge from an agent with a positive reputation. Use the AI tools. They are useful for browsing homes and running rough numbers. What they cannot do is get a seller to pay for your repairs, fund your buydown, or pick up the phone when your inspection comes back ugly. That part is still human. My clients have left 47 reviews averaging 5.0 stars on Google and Zillow: read what they said.
Check the Numbers Yourself
I would rather you see the sources than just hear it from me:
- Freddie Mac: weekly mortgage rates
- St. Louis Fed (FRED): 30-year rate history
- REIN: September 2026 Hampton Roads report
- Redfin: seller concessions, August 2026 (redfin.com/news)
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